30 September 2026
If you are covering the latest financial results from Greggs, please find below a comment from Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
"Greggs benefitted from a period of more settled weather in August and September, with its third quarter trading update indicating an improvement in trading conditions. The business also continues with its menu innovation, including Matcha, salads, and expansion of protein-led options, so it is pleasing to see some of these items having a positive impact too.
"Due to the improved trading performance in recent months and continued strong cost control, Greggs now expects “a modestly improved outcome for 2026”. Indeed, cost inflation remains well managed despite the external environment and is expected to remain at 2%, though the group highlighted signs of greater inflationary pressures in 2027.
"It was also noted in the release that Greggs is proposing to consolidate its manufacturing network, with the aim to meet its growing capacity requirements in the most cost-efficient manner. This consultation process likely leads to the closure of four manufacturing sites, along with 740 roles becoming redundant over two and a half years. This will lead to £60m of cash costs, which includes capex and redundancy payments, with the aim that this will deliver £20m of annualised savings from 2028-29.
"Greggs’ share price continues to trade at a discount to its recent history, reflecting concerns over weak volume trends. But the improving trading momentum suggesting volume recovery and the profit outlook upgraded, this should provide some reassurance."
