30 September 2026
If you are covering the latest UK GDP quarterly national accounts data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
"Today's GDP quarterly national accounts reveal the UK economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, revised up slightly from the 0.4% reported previously, providing a useful snapshot of the economy's health just four weeks before the Chancellor's first Budget.
"While these figures are somewhat backward-looking, they underline the challenge facing the government. Growth has come in marginally better than initially expected, but it remains difficult to come by as households and businesses contend with high borrowing costs, inflationary pressures and a cooling labour market. While there have been some shoots emerging in recent months, they risk being cut down at an early stage should we see tax rises or other measures announced at the Budget.
"The Chancellor has repeatedly stressed his commitment to fiscal responsibility, but delivering that while also generating meaningful economic growth may prove easier said than done. What’s more, with Andy Burnham’s speech yesterday outlining what will be costly plans, and likely more to come on the 28th October, there are already questions around whether it will be capable of generating the momentum needed to materially improve the public finances.
"Since the period covered by today's data, the outlook has become more uncertain. Geopolitical tensions, weaker global growth prospects and rising government borrowing have all added to the pressures. Ultimately, the Budget will be the first real test of whether the Chancellor can square fiscal discipline with the need to support growth. Markets will be looking for a credible plan, and are unlikely to give the government much benefit of the doubt. Stronger growth would make that task significantly easier, but today's figures suggest the road to a more durable recovery remains a long one."
