5 November 2026
If you are covering Vistry’s latest trading update, please see the following comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Vistry released its third quarter trading statement this morning and while there is further evidence of difficulty within the business, it is the information which is absent that is most concerning.
“What we do know is that the ongoing challenging sales market has resulted in management downgrading the balance sheet outlook for year end. As recently as September, management was guiding to a balance sheet with a net cash position at the end of the year; that has now been downgraded to net debt somewhere between £7-130 million, in line with the current range of analyst expectations. Under the circumstances, and wide range provided, we wouldn't be surprised to see it at the upper end of this range.
“However, potentially more concerning is the lack of operational information provided. There is colour provided on the market conditions being difficult, and details of a new chief financial officer appointment as well as headcount reductions and a reiteration of the £30 million of cost savings expected to be achieved for FY'27. But there is no recent sales rate provided, nor any guidance on profit - both data points that were provided in the first quarter statement earlier this year. It is difficult to imagine that they have been omitted because they are stronger than anticipated.
“Vistry has noted encouragement around the "Your First Home" scheme although management has acknowledged that it may create a short-term headwind as first-time buyers wait for the scheme to commence. The firm also welcomes the zero-rate of VAT applied to land sold to registered providers.”
