22 April 2026
If you are covering the latest UK HPI, please see the following comment from Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
"The UK House Price Index for February gives a pre-shock snapshot of a housing market that was broadly stable before the sharp deterioration in mortgage affordability seen more recently, with pricing still being supported by relatively manageable borrowing costs at the time.
"February predates the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which subsequently pushed up energy prices, inflation expectations and swap rates, forcing lenders to reprice mortgages rapidly through March and early April.
"That said, there are tentative signs that the worst of the mortgage rate spike may have passed. In recent weeks, several major lenders have begun to trim fixed rates as wholesale funding costs have eased back, providing some marginal relief for borrowers. While rates remain well above February levels, pricing appears to have stabilised for now rather than continuing to rise.
"Even so, changes in mortgage costs do not feed through to house prices immediately. The sharp rise in borrowing costs seen after February is more likely to weigh on activity and sentiment in the spring and early summer data, particularly among first‑time buyers and more rate‑sensitive parts of the market.
"Looking ahead, the outlook for house prices will depend largely on how geopolitical risks evolve. If tensions ease further and energy‑driven inflation pressures recede, mortgage rates could continue to edge lower, supporting broadly flat prices rather than a sharp correction. If volatility returns, affordability constraints are likely to reassert themselves, leading to weaker transaction volumes and softer prices as the year progresses.
"For households with mortgages due to mature later this year, recent weeks have underlined how quickly global events can feed through into borrowing costs. While pricing has improved at the margin, the market remains fragile. Securing a rate early can provide certainty in an unpredictable environment, while still allowing borrowers to benefit if conditions improve further."
