9 June 2026
If you are covering Bellway’s latest financial results, please find below a comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Bellway's Q3 trading update figures are ok. Guidance for 2026’s full year has been reiterated (operating profit £320-330m), although there has been a slight drop in the sales rates by around 5% compared to 2025. While net debt is elevated at £236m as of 29th May (compared to £73m last year), management expects that gearing will remain in line with previous years at around 5-10% by year end on 31st July, given the profile of cashflows over the summer.
“However, there are clearly some clouds gathering in response to the Middle East conflict, with rises in mortgage rates causing a moderation in consumer demand during the past couple of months. This has at least partially unwound a relatively strong start to the Spring selling season for the company, although reservation rates are still around 5% ahead of autumn and winter 2025. Management has also observed renewed upward pressure on build costs as a result of higher fuel and energy prices.
“What is most notable in today's statement is the absence of some figures. Management has held back from providing any guidance for FY27, compared to this time last year when there were volume expectations for the following year. There is also no commentary on house prices in FY26, and while operating profit guidance has been maintained, nothing has been said about the profit margin. There is a heightened degree of uncertainty in the UK housing market as a result of the Iran war, which is having a notable impact on both mortgage rates and build cost inflation, and the market is seeking evidence that either confirms or refutes concerns. The absence of information may well be seen as a warning sign, although we would caution that it isn't always as simple as that.”
