12 November 2026
If you are covering Persimmon's latest financial results, please find below a comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
"Persimmon's third quarter trading statement is a reminder that not every UK housebuilder is sliding backwards. The company's guidance for 2026 remains unchanged, and is an improvement compared to last year, notably the expected sales volume of 12,500 homes (up 5% vs 2025), and underlying profit before tax of around £455m (up 2% vs 2025). Some analysts might be mildly disappointed that there haven't been further upgrades; we would argue that holding ground in an environment where peers such as Taylor Wimpey are making cuts to guidance is in itself a good outcome.
"Top line performance continues. The company's sales rate of 0.79x (sales per site per week) is up from the same period last year, and is now very close to the long-term average, which we would expect to be in the 0.8-0.85x range. The average sales price is also up 2% year-on-year, again in contrast to the experience of some peers.
"Where investors might be disappointed is in the 2027 guidance, which is provided for the first time today. Management expects limited profit progression, and while not explicitly guided to, have included a median sell-side consensus figure for 2027 profit before tax of £460m, effectively flat compared to the expected 2026 figure. Management points to £30-40m of cost inflation expected in 2027, as well as higher financing costs as the main driver, and while there will be cost savings that mitigate the impact, it won't be fully felt until 2028.
"As disappointing as this is, it is likely that other housebuilders will be feeling the same inflationary pinch (we note that Taylor Wimpey did not make any comment about 2027 performance in yesterday's Q3 statement). It is also worth noting that these numbers likely do not include any material impact from the "Your First Home" scheme which will launch in 2027. However, while this may prove to be a source of upside, we do question whether it is big enough to move the needle for a builder the size of Persimmon, or the housing market more generally."
