7 August 2026
If you are covering the latest employment figures from the US, please find below a comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“The latest US jobs figures have bucked expectations, with a slight decline of 23,000 jobs reported, compared to estimates that suggested July would see 80,000 jobs added to the economy. Furthermore, revisions have meant that over 100,000 jobs have been removed from the totals from the previous two months too, indicating that all may not be well with the US economy given the slowing of GDP growth we saw in the second quarter.
“Such figures will perhaps temper expectations of a rate hike when the Fed next meets in September. Expectations had risen into the last meeting that a rate hike was around the corner as inflation became increasingly difficult to get under control. Data points released since then would suggest otherwise.
“Kevin Warsh is adamant that he will not provide the level of forward guidance the market has become accustomed to. Instead, he is allowing data such as this to do a lot of the heavy lifting, with rumour and scuttlebutt filling the rest of the gaps. This jobs report, coupled with stubbornly high and persistent inflation and weakening economy, means the market is struggling to know what the future direction is. As such, it has to plan for a number of scenarios, increasing the nervousness that is already out there from equity valuations and geopolitical risk. Markets hate unknown risk, yet it looks like it will have to deal with it during the tenure of Warsh.”
