2 October 2026
If you are covering the latest US employment figures, please find below a comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
"The latest US employment data suggests that the underlying economy isn’t firing on all cylinders and has the potential to cause the Federal Reserve to think closely about its next steps. Close to 30,000 new jobs were added to the economy in September, short of the expected 90,000, while downward revisions for July and August saw 60,000 further jobs removed from the market. Given August was a bumper month for hiring, this takes the shine off the data somewhat. The unemployment rate has ticked up as a result to 4.2%.
"Following the interest rate hike at its last meeting, the Federal Reserve has been keen to pour cold water on the idea it is embarking on a swift hiking cycle to help tame inflation. Indeed, weak numbers in the employment market today will add to the chance that the Fed holds rates in October before assessing further data as it comes in. Average monthly earnings have also cooled during September, giving cover to the idea that a pause in rate hikes is the next move for Kevin Warsh and the Fed Board.
"Ultimately, President Trump has not been able to manufacture a positive picture heading into November’s midterms, with both jobs and earnings growth moderating. With inflation remaining persistently high and no chance of a rate cut for a considerable period of time even with today’s data, the political picture looks increasingly complicated at a time when bond yields are spiking and questions around government borrowing and spending remain."
