15 September 2026
If you are covering the latest UK labour market statistics, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“The UK jobs market still appears to be stuck in a slump, with payrolled employee numbers falling by a further 101,000 or 0.3% between July 2025 and July 2026. On the month, they decreased by 19,000 or 0.1%, suggesting employers remain cautious about adding to headcount.
“The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, while the early estimate for August suggests the pattern of recent months is continuing for now, with payrolled employee numbers down 145,000 or 0.5% on the year and 26,000 or 0.1% on the month.
“While the labour market continues to soften, there are signs that it may be moving closer to its floor rather than entering a sharper downturn. Employers are still grappling with higher employment costs and an uncertain economic outlook, but the pace of deterioration appears less dramatic than it was earlier in the year.
“However, jobs data are no longer the only, or even the primary, concern for policymakers. Ahead of this week's Bank of England decision, attention has increasingly shifted towards inflation risks, particularly following the recent rise in oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Bank is not expected to hike rates just yet, but it is not a done deal. The labour market is undoubtedly cooling, but if energy costs continue to feed through into broader inflation, policymakers may find themselves balancing a weakening jobs market against renewed price pressures.
“The Budget is now fast approaching, and given Andy Burnham’s promises to improve youth unemployment in particular, it will be closely watched for any signs of support for businesses that could get companies hiring again. Any moves to boost employment would be very much welcomed by markets.”
