30 June 2026
If you are covering the latest GDP data, please see the following comment from Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot:
“The UK economy has expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, confirming the economy entered 2026 with a degree of momentum. However, this is already in the rear-view mirror.
"GDP fell by 0.1% in April, suggesting activity has started to soften as we moved into the second quarter. That shift highlights how quickly conditions have changed and raises the prospect that the first quarter may prove to be a peak for growth rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
"The broader backdrop remains uncertain. While a ceasefire between the US and Iran has helped ease immediate pressure on energy markets, it remains a fragile agreement with key details still unresolved. That leaves the risk of renewed volatility in energy prices firmly in place, which continues to cloud the outlook for inflation and continues to negatively impact consumer and business confidence.
"At the same time, the UK is entering a period of heightened political uncertainty. The prospect of an Andy Burnham-led government has already prompted closer scrutiny from markets, particularly around fiscal policy and borrowing, and any change in direction risks feeding through into financing conditions for the wider economy.
"This leaves the Bank of England in a difficult position. Growth is showing early signs of slowing, but inflation risks remain sensitive to energy prices and policy uncertainty. Even a solid first quarter does little to shift the broader picture, with the UK economy still struggling to generate consistent and sustainable growth.”
