29 September 2026
Quilter analysis with Cebr highlights retiree reliance on the State Pension as debate over the future of the triple lock intensifies
New findings from Quilter's Retirement Lifestyle Report, including econometric analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), reveal the central role the State Pension continues to play in supporting retirement incomes, accounting for almost a quarter (24%) of income across all retirees.
Reliance is significantly higher among some groups. For retirees aged 65-79 with below-average retirement incomes of £25,000 or less, the State Pension provides 57% of retirement income, while for those aged over 80 with below-average retirement incomes it accounts for 54%.
The findings come as the latest earnings data suggest a 3.9% uplift will see the full new State Pension top £13,000 a year for the first time, and as debate intensifies over the future of the triple lock following suggestions that it could be scrapped in favour of Andy Burnham’s social care plan. It also follows recent calls from the British Chambers of Commerce for it to be removed in order to help fund measures aimed at tackling youth worklessness.
Quilter says the figures highlight the importance of establishing a long-term framework for State Pension provision before any changes to the triple lock are considered.
While the triple lock has helped improve pensioner living standards and protect retirees from periods of high inflation, growing longevity and demographic changes mean its long-term sustainability is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The Institute for Fiscal Studies predicts that the triple lock could add as much as £45 billion a year to the welfare bill by 2050.
However, Quilter warns that any discussion about reforming the triple lock must begin with a clear understanding of how heavily many retirees depend on the State Pension, and the level of income society expects it to provide.
This issue will only become more prevalent in the future. Quilter’s research shows defined benefit pensions continue to be a significant driver of income for older retirees, accounting for 33% of income among those over 80 with above average incomes, compared with just 14% among their younger counterparts.
As these gold-plated schemes become increasingly rare, future generations are likely to rely more heavily on a combination of the State Pension, defined contribution savings and other private assets.
Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at Quilter, said:
“The triple lock debate has been repeatedly kicked down the road, and it seems we are nearing a juncture where it cannot go on. On one side of the debate are concerns about affordability and the growing cost of supporting an ageing population. On the other is the reality that millions of retirees depend on the State Pension for a substantial proportion of their income.
“Both arguments have merit, but debating the future of the triple lock in isolation misses the bigger question. Front and centre of any debate must be the role we want the State Pension to play in the future, the level of income it should provide relative to earnings, and how that can be delivered sustainably over the long term.
"Our research shows the State Pension accounts for almost a quarter of the average retiree's income, while for some groups it provides more than half of what they live on. Yet its importance extends beyond today's retirees. For millions of working people, it represents the foundation of their future retirement income and the expectation that there will be dependable support in later life.
"While the BCC’s call to abandon the triple lock is well intentioned in that it looks to divert those resources towards youth worklessness, ensuring the long-term sustainability of the State Pension would support the very people they aim help in securing an adequate retirement provision.
"Retirees are not blind to the challenges facing younger generations. Our research shows many already provide significant financial support to children and grandchildren. Establishing a sustainable long-term framework for the State Pension would not only protect today's pensioners but provide future generations with the certainty and security they will need when they eventually reach retirement themselves.
“The government should seize the opportunity presented by the Pensions Commission to establish a durable framework for State Pension adequacy and uprating. Any reform should be the product of thorough consultation and a clear vision for retirement provision in the UK, and there must be a lasting settlement that balances adequacy for retirees, affordability for taxpayers and fairness between generations, while commanding broad political support.
“People save and plan for retirement over decades, not parliamentary terms. Giving greater certainty over the future shape of the State Pension would help people plan with more confidence and make better long-term financial decisions.”
To access the full report, visit: Quilter Retirement Lifestyle Report 2026.
