30 April 2026
Glencore’s Q1 update underlines that pricing is doing the heavy lifting, with stronger commodities markets more than offsetting rising input costs linked to the Iran crisis.
Production was broadly in line overall, but with some important divergences underneath. Copper was the clear positive, up 19% year on year and slightly ahead of consensus, reinforcing exposure to a market where prices are up around 5% year to date. Thermal coal was steady at 23mt, matching expectations, but with prices up around 22% on the back of higher oil, that remains a meaningful earnings tailwind. Steelmaking coal was, by contrast, a bit weak.
Crucially, management also flagged a strong Q1 from the marketing division. In this environment, Glencore’s trading arm continues to differentiate the business, allowing it to benefit not just from higher prices but from volatility across commodities markets.
The elephant in the room is the failed merger talks with Rio Tinto. With that off the table for now, the direction of travel looks likely that Glencore will now implement its own "internal M&A", doing partial divestments and/or partnership deals for some of its individual mines and greenfield projects, similar to the 40% minority stake sale for its two copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and agreed with a US-government-backed corporate vehicle in January.
There remains a possibility that Rio could return with a fresh approach later in the year, but in the meantime Glencore is relying on a combination of pricing strength, trading performance and portfolio reshaping to drive value.
