If you are covering Greggs’ Q3 trading update, please see comments below from Mamta Valechha, retail equity analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
"Another robust trading update from Greggs this morning. For the third quarter ended September, total sales were up 10.6% and up 5% on a like-for-like basis. While this is softer than the 7% run rate we saw in the first half, reflecting a relatively soft July and August, Greggs mentioned that September was its strongest month, suggesting an acceleration into Q4. This growth is being driven by new menu developments, extended trading hours, and progress in its digital channels.
“Additionally, Greggs continues to extend its reach, bringing new shops closer to customers and establishing the supply chain capacity to support further growth. The estate continues to grow, either through improving the quality of stores or extending their reach – in the third quarter, Greggs opened two drive-throughs in Bristol.
“Investment in the supply chain is also progressing well. The redevelopment of the Birmingham distribution centre and the extension of the Amesbury distribution centre are now complete, adding logistics capacity to support a further 300 shops in the southern network. Meanwhile, the construction of the group’s new frozen facility in Derby is progressing in line with the plan, with the site opening in 2026. The group has also submitted a planning application for a new chilled National Distribution Centre in Kettering.
“Greggs has maintained its full-year profit expectations, with cost inflation now expected to be at the lower end of the 4-5% guided range. We continue to like Greggs; the group ranks highly on price perception and quality among coffee shops and quick service restaurants. There is significant growth potential in London and south-east England, and Greggs remains second only to McDonald’s in monthly active app users. We believe all these factors continue to support Greggs’ midterm opportunity."
