7 February 2025
If you are covering the latest US jobs data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“The first US jobs report of President Trump’s second term in office shows the labour market has started off the year slightly weaker than expected, with nonfarm payrolls up 143,000 in January. However, the unemployment level fell to 4.0% after accounting for the annual adjustments to population estimates.
“While this is a significant drop compared to the revised up 307,000 jobs added in December, it is not too dissimilar to the average monthly gain of 166,000 throughout 2024. It is also worth noting that this figure is only a first estimate and should also be taken with a pinch of salt as annual revisions and the wildfires in California will have played a significant role in the drop.
“Today’s figures are the first to encompass the US Census Bureau’s revised estimates of net immigration for 2022 and 2023, which saw a rise of close to 90% from 2.1m to 4m, and a further 2.8m for 2024. These revised figures show US population growth is now rising at the fastest pace seen for decades and mean the previously low estimations had artificially reduced estimated employment levels.
“The Federal Reserve hit pause on interest rates at its latest monetary policy meeting, and is expected to maintain this position for as long as there is sufficient strength in the economy and labour market. While so much focus is currently placed on Trump’s potentially inflationary fiscal, trade and immigration policies, the Fed will be reassured to see a slight dip in unemployment and that, for now, the labour market is still chugging along.”
