7 March 2025
If you are covering the latest US jobs data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
"The US jobs market continues to trudge on despite gloomier headlines on the economy increasing. The economy added a solid, if unspectacular, 151,000 jobs, as businesses continued to hire, particularly as a result of unseasonably warm weather, and companies on the West Coast bounced back following the wildfires in LA.
"However, there is concern that things may begin to turn sour in the coming months. The Trump administration has presented a fairly cloudy picture when it comes to economic policy, with harsh tariffs announced, only to be suspended for a month following backlash from markets. This is making it very difficult for businesses to plan for the year ahead and will definitely delay in re-shoring of jobs that Trump is hoping to achieve. Furthermore, while it is too early for Elon Musk’s influence to show up in the numbers, the removal of a number of public sector jobs will start to show in these reports going forward as DOGE wields its axe and looks to cut what it perceives to be waste.
"Ultimately, the US economy is in somewhat of an uncertain period. Inflation remains elevated, yet economic growth is slowing and the impact of any tariffs is likely going to exacerbate these things. Markets want to know the direction of travel, but the data coming out just now makes this too difficult. The path for interest rates is similarly uncertain, but today’s jobs numbers will likely keep the Federal Reserve in a holding pattern as it waits for clearer data that economic growth is struggling before enacting any new rate cuts."
