27 February 2025
If you are covering Taylor Wimpey’s 2024 full year results, please find comments below from Oli Creasey, property analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Taylor Wimpey’s full year results build on the Q4 trading statement released earlier in the year. Much of the top-line information – volumes and house prices – was already known, so no surprise there. The group’s £416m operating profit announcement was in line with company guidance, as was the 12.2% operating margin, both of which were lower than in 2023.
“The question investors may ask is about the outlook for 2025. The company stated earlier in the year that it was ‘well-positioned for growth,’ but this morning’s guidance is for volumes to be approximately flat year-on-year, within a range of 10,400-10,800 (compared to 10,593 in 2024). In some ways, Taylor Wimpey is having to run to stay still – the number of outlets open at the end of 2024 is 10% lower than a year ago, hampering any volume growth. While the company’s experience of 2025 so far shows a 12% increase in sales per outlet compared to the same period in 2024, the net effect is for overall volumes to be approximately unchanged. Similarly, current trading shows house prices as flat year-on-year, suggesting that margin improvement may be hard to come by.
“This may disappoint investors hoping to mark 2024 as the low point in the current housebuilder cycle. While there are positive signs, particularly the growing order book, which is 16% larger than a year ago, the lack of top-line growth is frustrating, even though it is partly due to operational cyclicality (i.e., fewer outlets). Taylor Wimpey plans to open more outlets in 2025 than it did in 2024, but with no guidance on how many will be closed, the net impact is unclear.”
