22 September 2026
If you are covering the latest HMRC tax receipts and national insurance contributions data, please see the following comment from Rachael Griffin, tax and financial planning expert at Quilter:
"With just weeks to go until the Budget, these figures provide an important reality check against the growing number of tax rumours circulating in Westminster. Speculation has centred on everything from further Capital Gains Tax reforms and possible alignment with income tax rates, through to changes to the personal allowance and wider measures targeting wealthier households. However, today's figures show the Treasury is already benefiting from rising tax receipts under the current system, raising questions about how much additional revenue could realistically be generated from further reforms.
Capital Gains Tax
"Capital Gains Tax receipts for August 2026 were £198 million, compared with £190 million in August 2025.
"One of the more persistent Budget rumours is that the Government could seek to align Capital Gains Tax rates more closely with income tax rates. On paper, such a move could significantly increase the amount of tax due on investment gains and potentially deliver a sizeable boost to Treasury revenues.
"However, Capital Gains Tax is one of the most behaviourally sensitive taxes in the system. Monthly receipts can be highly volatile and investors often have considerable control over when gains are realised. Faced with higher rates, some may accelerate disposals ahead of any changes while others may simply hold assets for longer or alter their investment behaviour altogether.
"That means while aligning Capital Gains Tax with income tax rates could appear to raise substantial sums on paper, the eventual tax take would depend heavily on how investors respond. History suggests the reality is rarely as straightforward as the forecasts.
Inheritance Tax
"Inheritance Tax receipts for April to August 2026 reached £3.8 billion, which is £0.1 billion higher than the same period last year.
"Inheritance Tax continues its upward trajectory as frozen thresholds, rising property values and increasing levels of household wealth bring more families into scope. What was once viewed as a tax affecting only the wealthiest households is increasingly becoming a mainstream financial planning issue.
"Given the scale of the Inheritance Tax changes already due to come into force, as the inclusion of unused pension wealth comes within the scope of IHT from April 2027, it would be somewhat surprising to see this area targeted again at the Budget. The Government already has a significant increase in future receipts effectively built into the system. However, Budget speculation is just that, and it is never wise to completely rule anything out.
Income Tax and National Insurance
"PAYE Income Tax and National Insurance receipts for April to August 2026 were £214.0 billion, which is £16.9 billion higher than the same period last year.
"Income tax and National Insurance continue to do most of the heavy lifting for the public finances. While headline rates have remained unchanged, frozen thresholds have steadily increased the tax burden on working people by pulling more earners into higher tax bands and exposing a greater proportion of income to taxation.
"This is particularly relevant given recent speculation that the Chancellor could increase the personal allowance. Such a move would undoubtedly be welcomed by taxpayers who have spent years dealing with fiscal drag, but it would also come at a significant cost to the Treasury. These figures demonstrate just how valuable frozen thresholds have become to the Exchequer.
How to plan
"Whatever emerges from next month's Budget, investors and savers should be cautious about making major financial decisions based purely on rumours. Budget speculation often proves inaccurate and policy proposals can change significantly before they ever become law.
"If you were already planning to dispose of an asset that could give rise to a Capital Gains Tax liability, there may be merit in considering whether completing that transaction before the Budget is appropriate. However, the tax tail should never wag the investment dog.
"Making rushed decisions solely because of speculation around future tax changes can often do more harm than good. Investment decisions should be driven first by financial objectives, risk tolerance and long-term planning goals, with tax remaining an important, but secondary, consideration.
"For now, the most sensible approach is to focus on the allowances and reliefs that exist today, including ISAs, pensions and gifting exemptions, rather than trying to second guess what may or may not appear in the Budget."
