29 December 2023
If you are covering the latest property transaction data for November, please see the following comment from Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
"The UK property market, still reeling from the challenges of 2023, is hopefully poised for a more stable year but this morning’s property transaction figures show quite how difficult a year it has been. The provisional data for November 2023, with residential transactions at 87,640 (non-seasonally adjusted) and 80,780 (seasonally adjusted), indicates a continued downtrend, 22% lower than November 2022 and marginally lower than October 2023. This points to a market grappling with high mortgage rates and economic uncertainties. But with interest rates looking likely to be at the very least more stable next year there is the potential for a gradual recovery in 2024 on the horizon.
"That said, house prices, after enduring a difficult 2023, may experience further dips in early 2024. The convergence of continued high mortgage rates will suppress buyer enthusiasm. However, the limited housing stock and elevated rental costs should cushion the market from a significant drop, leading to a modest decline in prices and even at times some modest increases. This dynamic could present opportunities for prospective buyers, particularly those looking to take advantage of any cut price deals from distressed sellers struggling with mortgage bills.
"The current slow market as evidenced by today’s figures, characterised by a 'wait and see' approach, may transition into a buyers' market due to lower demand, potentially enabling savvy buyers to negotiate better deals. However, the overall market stability remains dependent on the Bank of England's interest rate policies and broader economic factors.
"The rental market in 2024 is expected to remain tight, with limited availability and high rental costs. Landlords face increasing expenses due to a hostile tax environment, which could lead to an exodus of small-scale landlords, further straining the rental market. This could impact the availability and affordability of rental properties, with no significant relief in sight for renters.
"A critical factor to watch in 2024 will be the impact of sustained mortgage costs on homeowners. An increase in homeowners needing to downsize due to financial pressures could lead to a surge in market listings, potentially causing a more significant drop in house prices. This situation could create both challenges and opportunities in the market, affecting buyers and sellers differently."
