15 November 2022
If you are covering the latest UK labour market statistics, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
"Despite storm clouds growing heavier over the UK economy, the UK jobs market remains resilient for now. With winter drawing in and increased energy bills starting to really bite businesses’ bottom line it remains to be seen how long this can last.
"The unemployment rate for July to September 2022 decreased by 0.2 percentage points on the quarter to 3.6%, while the UK employment rate for July to September 2022 was 75.5%, largely unchanged on the previous quarter.
"However, in real terms, total pay for this employment fell by 2.6% and regular pay fell by 2.7%. This remains one of the largest falls in pay since 2001. Although there was growth in average pay this growth is totally eclipsed by the inflation we are experiencing meaning that peoples pay packets simply will not stretch so far.
"Although the UK is not officially in recession it looks almost certain that we are heading for one. The budget on Thursday will further illustrate the precarious financial position the UK is in and while this fiscal event will hopefully be better welcomed by the markets compared to the mini-budget delivered by Truss and Kwarteng, it is certainly going to spell pain for public services and bring higher taxes for all further muddying the picture as we head into winter."
