27 June 2025
If you are covering the latest property transaction statistics, please see the following comment from Rosie Hooper, chartered financial planner from Quilter Cheviot:
"After April’s sharp slump in transactions following the stamp duty threshold changes, May has seen a notable bounce back. Seasonally adjusted residential transactions rose by 25% month-on-month, showing the market is starting to rebalance after March’s deadline-driven activity and April’s subsequent lull."
"However, while this might suggest a return to normality, the bigger picture remains more subdued. Transaction volumes are still 12% lower than May last year, and when we look further back, the longer-term trend is clear. This May’s seasonally adjusted figure of 81,470 is among the lowest for the month since 2015—well below the 100,000-plus levels recorded between 2017 and 2022. Even compared to 2023, when the market was already slowing, volumes remain significantly depressed. This suggests that while demand hasn’t disappeared, buyers are still constrained by affordability and caution."
"The economic outlook is adding to that uncertainty. A potentially fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following weeks of heightened tensions, hangs over the global economy. Should hostilities flare up again, any disruption to oil supplies could send prices soaring, reigniting inflation and delaying any cuts to interest rates. That would have a knock-on effect on mortgage pricing here in the UK and could stall any tentative recovery in housing market activity."
"Ultimately, what we are seeing is a market highly reactive to policy shifts and global events. The recent fluctuations have been driven more by short-term tax deadlines than a resurgence in underlying buyer confidence. While the May uptick is welcome, it would be premature to see it as the start of a sustained recovery. The housing market remains fragile, and a more robust rebound will depend not just on cheaper mortgages but on broader economic stability and consumer confidence returning."
