28 August 2025
If you are covering Nvidia's latest results, please see the following comment from Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Nvidia’s results were straight down the middle, solid, but not the blockbuster beat some investors are used to. It’s beating sell-side consensus, but it’s bang in line with buy-side expectations. Gross margins are ticking up slightly, with guidance pointing to 75% by year-end, which is encouraging given how semiconductor stocks trade on margin strength.
"The guidance is particularly interesting, they’ve guided to $54 billion at the midpoint, but that figure excludes any China sales. On the earnings call, management referenced a potential $2–5 billion in China revenue. So if you’re looking at the numbers ex-China, it’s arguably a miss; include China, and it’s more of a beat. That nuance is key to understanding market reaction.
"While China represented around 13 percent of Nvidia’s revenue in 2024, many investors now treat it as an optional add-back rather than a core part of the forecast. The broader AI story remains compelling. Hyperscaler CAPEX is expected to grow 50 percent this year and 15% next year, and we’re seeing growing momentum from sovereigns, enterprises, agentic AI, and physical AI applications like robotics and autonomous systems. These trends show Nvidia’s demand base is still expanding.
"Importantly, Nvidia’s Blackwell product is already ramping and looking ahead, the Rubin platform is expected to launch next year, promising a major leap in performance and efficiency."
