27 August 2025
If you are covering the latest Mortgage Guarantee Scheme statistics, please see the following comment from Holly Tomlinson, financial planner at Quilter:
“The latest Mortgage Guarantee Scheme statistics show the lacklustre impact the scheme has had so far, and just how ineffective the Government’s permanent version of the scheme is likely to be.
“Since its launch in April 2021, the scheme has supported a total of 56,389 mortgages, 86% of which were by first time buyers. Mortgage completions supported by the scheme have been tailing off since it first launched, and while there seemed to have been a slight uptick in previous quarters which may have been driven by more people trying to push through completions ahead of the changes to stamp duty, the take up has still been relatively low.
“What’s more, the average property value under the scheme was £215,467, significantly below the national average house price of £271,000, which raises questions about the schemes ability to cater to those in more expensive parts of the country.
“While the government’s decision to make the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme permanent may help at the margin, it does not create homes or meaningfully lower borrowing costs. Without more supply and a clearer path on rates and taxation, the housing market could face a winter of discontent that drags into next year with even more people shut out.
“This is before you consider the other rumours circulating as we near the Chancellor’s budget which would risk further gluing up the market. One such rumour focuses on replacing stamp duty with a proportional property tax. While this would recognise that the current system is deeply flawed, there is a danger of creating new problems. Stamp duty has long deterred older homeowners from downsizing, and any new tax must avoid further locking up family homes at a time of acute shortage.
“Similarly, a levy on sales above £500,000 might sound like a tax on wealth, but in many regions it would capture ordinary homes. Crucially, the housing market is a ladder, with every sale interlinked. If transactions higher up the chain are taxed heavily, it risks grinding the whole system to a halt, compounding the difficulties first-time buyers already face.”
