21 December 2022
If you are covering HMRC’s monthly property transactions statistics, please see the following comment from Charlotte Nixon, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“The cost-of-living crisis is still yet to take a real toll on the property market, as the number of monthly property transactions has not yet started to tail off as had been expected. The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in November 2022 is 107,190, 13% higher than November 2021, though less than 1% higher than October 2022.
“While property transactions are yet to fall, they are certainly beginning to slow. A fall in house prices is widely anticipated for next year – Nationwide just yesterday shared its prediction that house prices could lower by 5% in 2023 – and slowing property transactions is likely the first sign that this could materialise as reduced demand goes hand in hand with reduced prices.
“The Bank of England has now hiked its Base Rate to 3.5%, which will have a knock-on effect on mortgage rates – primarily for those on variable rate mortgages. As such, more people may opt to hold off on purchasing a home as the monthly costs rise and become that much more unaffordable, which will only further reduce demand.
“The government has now announced that its 95% mortgage guarantee scheme will be extended by a year, which should help first-time buyers purchase their first home amid a very trying time. This extension, coupled with the changes made to Stamp Duty at the mini-budget in September, could keep property transactions at a higher level than they might otherwise have been. However, given the high level of mortgage rates and soaring everyday costs, we are still likely to see a dip as we head into 2023.”
