9 January 2025
If you are covering Greggs' latest results, please see the following comment from Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
"Greggs saw a somewhat stale end to last year, with like for like sales decelerating sequentially to 2.5% growth in Q4. While this period marked one year since the company’s Uber Eats launch, the slowdown in sales was more pronounced than expected as a result of weaker footfall and reduced spend across the high street. This means Greggs closed out the full year with like for like sales at 5.5%.
"Despite this slight disappointment, it is reassuring that Greggs maintained its market share and protected its value proposition. The company also reiterated its profit outlook for the year, owed primarily to good cost management.
"Management continues to guide to mid-single digit inflation for 2025, with the largest component expected to be labour. However, Greggs has a strong track record of mitigating cost inflation via efficiencies and selective price increases, so we would expect the group to adopt a similar approach once more.
"Greggs will post a more granular update in March, but until then we anticipate some prudent cuts to like for like forecasts for 2025 given the combination of a soft end to 2024 and the subdued consumer sentiment as we head into 2025.
"While Greggs is facing its fair share of headwinds, its strong value proposition means the company remains well placed to take market share and continue to drive profits in FY25. This will continue to be helped along by the group’s initiatives which include expanding into new spaces, extending its menu, and driving higher evening sales and increased digital participation."
