5 February 2026
If you are covering the collapse of the merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto, please find below a comment from Maurizio Carulli, energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Rio Tinto and Glencore announced that the possible merger has been abandoned. Rio Tinto wanted to retain its Chair and CEO and, according to Glencore, Rio's offer "did not adequately valued the company" – essentially saying a sufficient premium had not been offered. Given that it was the second time a combination was attempted and that the former Rio Tinto CEO is understood to have left Rio Tinto at least in part because of its alleged opposition to the deal, the combination is now over for good.
“Where does this leave Glencore now? Glencore in its statement says that it will simply continue with its existing strategy to expand its portfolio of assets (copper, etc.) and to benefit from the strength of its marketing (i.e. commodities physical trading business).
“Another player might now consider a bid for Glencore, albeit the probability is relatively low. In recent weeks BHP had been mentioned as a possible alternative “preyer” in the press. Glencore will probably now implement its own "internal M&A", possibly IPOing its coal assets in Australia, and may do partnership deals for some of its individual assets, similar to the minority stake sale announced yesterday for its two copper mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, agreed with a US-government-backed corporate vehicle. What is certain is that the underlying value of Glencore's assets has not changed after the collapse of the deal. It is the (modest) take-over premium that has evaporated.
“Glencore’s share price was down by 7% this afternoon. The current share price, after the fall is still above both the 413p of the closure of the day before the merger talk announcement (8 January) and the 454p at the end of the day of the announcement (9 January). However, relative to the UK Materials sector, Glencore has lost all the extra performance of the recent weeks, coming back to the pre-announcement level, albeit at an higher absolute level.”
