24 November 2025
The latest Investor Trends survey from Quilter has found that fund managers, despite recent market falls, see reasons to be positive heading into 2026.
Asked to rank their current risk appetite on a scale of one (max bearish) to 10 (max bullish) on a six-to-nine-month basis, the average score has risen from 5.4 to 5.9 over the course of a quarter.
One respondent acknowledged that they are cautiously optimistic as markets shrug off events that would historically have caused volatility. “We continue to witness an element of ‘crises fatigue’ from investors in the face of global conflict, political shocks and policy swings,” they said.
The survey found that fund managers believe private credit market stress to be the most underappreciated risk presently. Almost two-thirds (65%) identified the market, while nearly half (47%) saw the overvaluation in tech stocks and the AI trade as the most underappreciated risk right now – the source of the recent market volatility we have seen.
The last few months have seen some high-profile blow ups in the credit market, particularly within the private space following the bankruptcy of and the subsequently alleged fraud within First Brands – the US auto parts company. Tricolor, the US sub-prime auto lender, soon followed, and again exposed large financial institutions to losses on their private credit books.
Another apparent bubble fund managers are less concerned with is gold. Having soared throughout 2025 to a high of nearly $4,400, up from just over $2,500 at the beginning of the year, the precious metal has since dropped back now hovers around $4,000. Investors it seems have taken a pause for breath following the fast rise.
However, it would appear investors do not believe that this pause will be long lasting. Over eight in ten fund managers (81%) believe that gold will rise by a minimum of 5% over the next six months, while nearly one in five (19%) expect gold to rise by over 10% in the same time period. Only 12% of investors expect gold to fall from the $4,000 mark, indicating that the recent correction seems unlikely to become a deeper rout.
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said: “It is interesting to see that despite some well publicised and worrying risks developing in markets, including the recent falls, fund managers are effectively shrugging their shoulders and becoming more risk tolerant. It is clear that professional investors continue to look at the wider corporate picture and sparks of optimism remain that markets could grind higher in 2026.
“That is not to say fund groups are not cognisant of the risks in the credit market. The blow ups of First Brands and Tricolor have sent shockwaves amongst financial institutions and given the meteoric rise of the private credit industry it is right that questions be asked. If we see any wider contagion then it is likely that further volatility could emerge.
“It is perhaps this backdrop that sees investors be comfortable with the current level of the price of gold. Demand from central banks has helped to sustain the rise to date, and despite a recent correction fund managers again appear comfortable with current valuations. If we do start to see additional volatility in other areas of the market, investors may just be attracted to gold’s shining qualities once again.”
