23 June 2025
If you are covering the news that Assura is now recommending an improved offer from PHP, over the previous bid from KKR, please find below a comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
“The saga around Assura and who takes over the healthcare property investor continues. Assura's board met last week to discuss the two deals that are on the table – a cash offer from KKR, or cash and shares from PHP. As a reminder, Assura had previously recommended the KKR bid, despite the PHP offer adding up to more value (depending on where the share price was when you did the maths).
“Until recently, we had the sense that Assura was a bit too quick to align with KKR, and was reluctant to properly engage with PHP’s bid. That appears to no longer to be the case, with Assura now feeling ‘reassured’ about prior concerns the board had raised, specifically around elevated loan to value. Assura had previously faced accusations that, by promoting the lower bid, they were not seeking best value for shareholders. That accusation appears largely put to bed today, with PHP increasing its bid with an additional 0.84p special dividend. It's relatively small beer, but it is enough to put daylight between the two bids.
“The upshot is that Assura has now pivoted and is now recommending the PHP bid over KKR, now that there is a 6% gap between them. That aligns with our views on the two bids, as well as most other shareholders we have spoken to.
“The saga is nearing its conclusion, but it isn't done just yet. Adding to the drama, PHP's shares are down 3% this morning, narrowing the gap between the two bids. We don't think KKR will increase their offer, but they may not have to - another bad morning and PHP's shares would go past the crossover price of 96p. Given events to date, further twists and turns could be on the cards.”
