15 May 2025
If you are covering Assura’s trading statement, including the Scheme Document regarding the takeover bid from KKR and Stonepeak, please find comments below from Oli Creasey, property analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Assura has published a trading statement for the full year ending March 2025, alongside a Scheme Document regarding the takeover bid from KKR and Stonepeak.
“The trading statement shows a company in good health, with property values rising approximately 2% in the past year, roughly evenly split between H1 and H2. Rental growth has accelerated slightly in H2, with the weighted average rental increase up 20bps to 3.2% vs H1. Most notable is the modest acceleration in the uplift from rents settled under open market reviews (up 2.2%), a category which has historically seen quite sluggish growth, but where momentum now appears to be building.
“The statement is brief compared to normal FY results, but does contain an EPRA NAV (European Public Real Estate Association Net Asset Value), now called NTA (Net Tangible Assets), which has increased 2% over the year to 50.4p, with most of the increase occurring in H2. The company has not update the reported NDV (Net Disposal Value), but we estimate that this figure would be approximately 56p per share.
“The NDV estimate is particularly relevant given the ongoing takeover situation. Assura has received a formal offer of 49.4p from KKR & Stonepeak, which is close to the reported NTA, but almost 12% below our estimated NDV. Given these figures, shareholders might consider NDV as the key valuation metric, suggesting the bid undervalues the company.
“The scheme document sets out a timetable for the bid, with a General Meeting set for 5th June (and a proxy form deadline of 3rd June). Approval requires 75% of votes cast, a notably high threshold. Neither the trading statement nor the scheme document mention a competing bid from Primary Health Properties (PHP), a close listed peer of Assura. PHP’s management has made an indicative approach proposing a cash and shares counteroffer, though no formal bid has yet materialised. However, due diligence continues behind the scenes.
“With the vote date set for KKR’s offer, attention now turns to PHP. The question is whether they will return with a formal bid – and if so, whether it offers superior value to shareholders.”
