28 October 2026
If you are covering the housebuilder share price reaction to the Your First Home scheme, please find below a comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
"Initial reaction to the "Your First Home" announcement today has been underwhelming, with shares in companies such as Persimmon falling sharply following the budget announcement.
"The primary cause appears to be the size of the support, which is to start at £700m per year, rising to £1bn in 2028-9. Prior analysis suggested that a figure close to £2bn per year would be required to materially spur an increase in sales volumes, and the actual announcement has fallen some way short of that. Depending on the price paid for the homes, this could support as little as 10-15k sales per annum, which is very small in the context of the long-standing ambition to build c.300k homes each year.
"There is also some concern around the size of the developer contribution, which is tiered, but in such a way that large scale builders such as Persimmon will likely reach the highest tier within a few weeks of commencement. That top tier 4% charge is not a huge surprise, but at the upper end of our expectations, and will eat into any operating margin expansion that might otherwise have occurred.
"The final issue is that the scheme will not commence until the second quarter of 2027, slower than anticipated. While this is mostly an issue around timing, the likelihood is that housebuilders will see a drop-off in sales over the next six months as eligible first-time buyers wait for the support to kick in. The impact should reverse out over time, but pushes back those revenues marginally.
"On the plus side, the reaction to the budget from the gilt markets has been muted so far, which offers a degree of support to those taking out a mortgage. There were fears that a further spike in borrowing rates could occur and drive mortgage rates higher, with the inevitable impact on the housing and house-building market. The lack of reaction will come as something of a relief to anyone exposed, albeit the YFH news will likely dominate the headlines."
