14 January 2026
If you are covering the latest financial results from Vistry, please find below a comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Following the outcome of the June spending review, when the UK Government announced a £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP), sales have accelerated at Vistry, a major provider to this market. However, while estimates that sales volumes in the second half of 2025 were around 30% higher than in the first half, the total number of completions by the housebuilder has reduced by 9% year-on-year to c.15,700, which is also some way below consensus expectations.
“Much of the decrease occurred in that first six months, when Affordable Partners held off investing due to uncertainty prior to the spending review. However, Private Rented Sector (PRS) buyers held off in the second half, and Open Market sales also reduced largely due to Vistry operating fewer outlets during the period.
“Despite the fall in volumes, revenue is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year, albeit also a small miss versus expectations, as a 3% higher average sale price, and £200m of land sales mitigate the lower sales volumes.
“Management remarks that market conditions remain uncertain in the near term, but that a combination of SAHP-backed demand, which will start to kick in around the middle of 2026, plus higher demand for PRS assets and the possibility for lower mortgage rates will support "year-on-year financial and strategic progress". However, we note that the forward order book of £4.0bn is 10% lower than this time last year, and management's comments that performance is again likely to be H2-weighted in 2026, suggesting that investors may have to be patient when looking for signs of this progress.”
