6 March 2026
If you are covering the latest US jobs data, please see the following comment from Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot:
“The US jobs market has taken a big tumble, with total nonfarm payrolls dropping by 92,000 – a hugely disappointing outcome compared to expectations of a 50,000-60,000 uplift and the oversized 126,000 uplift seen last month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.4%.
“In recent data sets, the healthcare and education sectors have buoyed the numbers significantly and the headline figures have been having somewhat of a smoke and mirrors effect. These sectors tend to be driven by structural, non-cyclical demand, and their strength alone does not necessarily signal a ‘strong’ economy. This is evidenced clearly in today’s print, as recent healthcare strike activity has contributed heavily to the decrease, while total private payrolls dropped by 86,000 down from an increase of 146,000 previously, suggesting momentum in job creation is not broadening out. However, overall downward revisions to previous reports paint a slightly softer picture than it could have been.
“There appears to be very little appetite to bolster the workforce, but many businesses seem to be taking a ‘no hire, no fire’ stance where they can which is helping to keep the unemployment rate relatively steady. However, the Federal Reserve will be keen to see a return to better hiring levels across the board in the months ahead.
“The near-term path for the Fed’s interest rate decisions looks relatively set in stone. Mixed economic signals, combined with uncertainty arising from the Iranian conflict, point towards a continued pause on rate cuts for the time being. The full inflationary impact of the conflict will take some time to filter through, but with oil and energy prices already being driven sharply upwards – hitting the highest level since the start of the conflict earlier today - inflation could once again spike should this be sustained. If this is the case, the Fed will want to see inflation return closer to its 2% target before considering any further cuts.”
