12 August 2026
If you are covering the latest US inflation data, please find below a comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
"As expected, inflation cooled moderately in the US to 3.4% in July, down from 3.5% in the prior month. Core inflation similarly dropped by the same margin, coming in at 2.5%. Inflation is heading in the right direction for now, and given Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s desire not to give much, if any, forward guidance, there should be a fairly sanguine market reaction to these latest figures.
"Following the difficult employment numbers that came out at the end of last week, this latest data print should help remove the possibility of a rate hike in September and potentially eliminate any for the rest of the year – provided events in the Middle East remain calm while the US and Iran keep up the rhetoric of a new deal in the pipeline.
"It will certainly be too early to declare inflation tamed and rate cuts start to feed into the narrative just now. Digging into the data, there is clearly still sticky energy and shelter prices, and these are going to be difficult to eliminate from the system given the rise in energy prices over the course of the year. That said, less volatile data points to a much calmer disinflationary period, which can only be welcomed, but likely keeps the Fed in its holding pattern for the foreseeable future."
