10 April 2026
If you are covering the latest US inflation data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“In the first full month since the outbreak of the Iran war, US inflation spiked by 0.9% on the month and rose to 3.3% in the 12 months to March – up from 2.4% in February.
“Energy prices unsurprisingly took the top spot in terms of upward pressure, with an overall rise of 10.9% on the month and 12.5% in the 12 months to March. This includes a 21.2% monthly and 18.9% annual rise in gasoline prices and a huge 30.7% monthly and 44.2% annual rise in fuel oil prices. While oil prices have tumbled since the news of the ceasefire broke, they remain considerably elevated compared to pre-war levels and they’ll likely stay there for some time yet – even if a resolution is found relatively swiftly.
“President Trump won’t be best pleased with today’s inflation print and given his heavy criticism of Joe Biden’s handling of inflation during his tenure as President, we can expect him to be rather sensitive to such a significant swing. Trump will be pinning his hopes on the ceasefire holding, as if the peace talks are not productive then there’s a real risk of a further spike.
“At last month’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Jerome Powell said the central bank would be unlikely to need to raise rates in response given oil price moves and the pressure they can add tends to be temporary. However, the sheer scale of the price shock this time around, alongside the uncertainty over the level of damage done to energy infrastructure and when supply routes will fully reopen, mean the Fed cannot dismiss it entirely.
“Nonetheless, a hold is widely expected at its meeting later this month as it continues to sit in ‘wait and see’ mode, but all eyes will be on whether there is any indication of a change in its stance or if it will continue to bide its time.”
