9 January 2026
If you are covering the latest US jobs data, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Today’s US employment situation print shows just 50,000 jobs were added in December, down from 64,000 in November. This was below expectations of 60,000 and shows the labour market remains considerably more subdued than in recent years. Healthcare, social assistance, food services and drinking places were among the sectors driving much of the hiring, while retail saw job losses.
“The government shutdown resulted in a period of market labour market weakness, and today’s figures show there is yet to be much of a bounce back, though the unemployment rate saw a slight decline to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% previously. The data also outline the substantial drop in payrolls in 2025 compared to 2024, with just 584,000 jobs added last year compared to 2.0 million the year prior.
“Inflation and GDP data due out over the coming weeks will help to paint a clearer picture of how the US economy is faring. Markets are currently pricing in around two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but whether or not that is realistic remains to be seen. While there is no doubt the labour market has weakened, the question will remain whether it is weak enough to warrant further cuts given inflation is still considerably above the Fed’s 2% target – albeit on the decline.
“Looking ahead, predicting how the Federal Reserve will move throughout the year will be a challenging task. The outlook is murky and things could rapidly change as we have seen time and again before now, but with data still playing a bit of catch up after the lengthy government shutdown last year, for now the best guess is that we can expect the Fed to continue to hold for some time yet.”
