9 January 2026
If you are covering Unite Group's latest financial results, please see the following comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
Some of Unite Group's Q4 trading statement comes as expected, such as the reiteration of FY'25 earnings per share guidance of 47.5-48.25p and for occupancy and rental growth for the next academic year to be 93-96% and 2-3% respectively, but there are a couple of notable headwinds.
First are the current trading figures - beds for the next academic year are 64% sold, which is several percentage points behind the sales progress this time last year, and some way further behind the 70% in both of the two years prior to that. 2025 was a difficult year for Unite; the company struggled to fill space in all of its properties by the start of the 2025/26 academic year, and today's results will struggle to convince investors that last year was a one-off given the occupancy has taken a further hit. There is a long way to go before these lettings start in autumn, but the company will have to prove to investors that this isn't a sign of further weakness in the sector and that management's guidance can be achieved.
The other cause for concern is a decline in property values in Q4'25. Student accommodation valuations have increased marginally over the course of 2025, but reversed direction in Q4, with national figures falling 0.7%, and London properties seeing a 1.4% decline. Neither figure is a massive move, but as with the occupancy figures, if this trend becomes typical, 2026 could prove to be a tricky year.
Following a steep fall in the share price last year, management have announced a £100m buyback programme, which is sensible, although there are some doubts as to how effective buybacks are at shoring up share prices. Still, it is better to be doing something so we see this as incrementally positive.
