20 January 2026
If you are covering the latest UK labour market statistics, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“In the first of several key UK data sets due out this week, this morning’s UK labour market statistics from the ONS reveal the jobs market saw a considerable slowdown in November. Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 155,000 between November 2024 and November 2025 and dropped by 33,000 on a monthly basis.
“Businesses put hiring plans on hold ahead of the budget, and it seems they are yet to restart. National insurance costs for businesses rose substantially last year, and the incoming cap on NIC exemptions will make many firms think twice before increasing their commitments. Initial estimates for December show the market weakened even further during the festive period, with the number of payrolled employees decreasing by 43,000 on the month and 184,000 on the year, though this is subject to revisions.
“Wage growth has weighed heavily on the Bank of England for some time now and it will be pleased to see it has continued to ease, albeit very gradually. Annual growth in regular earnings excluding bonuses fell slightly to 4.5% from 4.6%, while growth in total earnings including bonuses eased to 4.7% from a revised 4.8%.
“The Bank of England’s MPC opted to cut rates at its December meeting, and there is seemingly scope for more cuts throughout 2026. Last week’s GDP data showed a rather meagre return to growth, and tomorrow’s inflation data will reveal whether it is getting any closer to the Bank’s 2% target. Regardless, it seems that the first rate cut of the year is unlikely to come for a few months yet, and the Bank will be biding its time and keeping a close eye on what unfolds in the coming weeks – in the UK and beyond.”
