18 August 2026
If you are covering the latest UK labour market statistics, please see the following comment from Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
“The UK employment market appears to be nearing something of a trough. Payrolled employee numbers fell by 78,000 or 0.3% between June 2025 and June 2026, but were largely unchanged on the month, decreasing just 13,000 or 0.0% between May and June, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%. The early estimate for July shows it shared a similar fate, decreasing by 94,000 or 0.3% on the year and 13,000 or 0.0% on the month.
“Private jobs surveys have indicated that the labour market has bottomed out, and with a new administration now in charge and the narrative appearing a lot more positive and hopeful, we may see businesses begin to get the confidence to start hiring once again, especially if events in the Middle East remain relatively benign and energy prices don’t rocket again.
“What Andy Burnham will be hoping to see in the coming months is the start of a sustained reversal. Indeed, youth unemployment in particular has become a worrying statistic for the government, and something Burnham has promised to act upon with an increase in vocational education at younger ages. The UK’s demographics are changing significantly enough that the government needs to get more young people into employment, education or training if any sort of economic growth is to be sustained over the long-term.
“This is where the upcoming Budget will be closely watched, especially for any signs of further infrastructure or help for businesses to get companies hiring once again. The chances of a rate cut from the Bank of England soon have faded into the horizon, and data such as this will likely confirm that the next move is still likely to be up. Economic growth will need to come from somewhere, so any moves to help boost employment from this trough will be happily welcomed by markets."
