12 February 2026
If you are covering the latest UK GDP data, please see the following comment from Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
“A long list of data revisions from the ONS has revealed the UK economy barely kept its head above water in the final quarter of last year, with GDP growth coming in at just 0.1% after downward revisions to the previous two data prints. December saw a meagre uplift of 0.1%, which was in line with expectations, but November’s growth has been revised down to 0.2% from the 0.3% first reported.
“On an annual basis, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in 2025, up slightly from 1.1% in 2024 and slightly ahead of overall expectations. However, today’s print was supposed to give a clear picture of the UK’s growth last year, but we have instead been left with the ONS opening January to November 2025 to further revisions. Regardless, it is clear the economy is very fragile.
“The Christmas period was weak by historical standards, and that is laid bare in today’s data. The services sector, which had previously been noted as the largest contributor, showed no growth and its impact was revised down from 0.2% to nothing in the three months to November too. Surprisingly, production output grew by 1.2%, having fallen by 0.1% in the three months to November, but it was outweighed by a fall of 2.1% in the construction sector which followed a 0.9% fall previously.
“While the picture is rather bleak at the moment, some optimism is warranted if inflation falls. Should it come back down to the Bank of England’s 2% target, the door could open to more significant rate cuts later in the year.
“We should now be reaching a place where peak uncertainty is behind us, and businesses are better able to plan for the post budget and post trade deal world. However, the well flagged leadership challenge – which headlines would have us believe is fast becoming a case of when rather than if – risks derailing that. Should that materialise and we see a lurch to the left, it could result in higher spending, higher taxes and even weaker growth. Only time will tell how it plays out.”
