6 March 2026
If you are covering the oil price jump and the impact it could have on the UK, please see the following comment from Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
“The warning from Qatar’s energy minister reflects very real concerns about the risk of prolonged disruption to energy supplies from the Gulf, although a lengthy halt to all Gulf oil and gas production remains an extreme scenario. Nonetheless, the concerns he raises are understandable. With production in Qatar already halted following recent attacks on key facilities, there is clear market anxiety about further damage to infrastructure in the region and the ability of exporters to quickly resume output.
“In the near term, gas markets are likely to feel the strain more acutely than oil. Oil prices have moved higher, but it could be a temporary interruption rather than the kind of long term supply removal that was seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The real uncertainty is how long the disruption lasts, and whether it’s a matter of days, weeks or potentially longer.
“A major pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz. If the route remains constrained, even partially, it limits the flow of both oil and gas and keeps upward pressure on prices. Market moves generally imply investors expect this to be resolved quite quickly, drawing on recent precedents where disruption was short lived. However, with each passing day, the risk grows that this conflict proves more drawn out than initially expected.
“For households, the pressure will be felt primarily in energy prices rather than a broad inflation shock. UK food inflation, for example, is unlikely to be significantly affected because much of the food imported into the UK does not rely on Gulf shipping routes. The bigger economic risk comes from persistently higher energy costs, which can weigh heavily on growth. At the same time, that lower growth may feed into softer economic activity and a cooling labour market, which could help limit how far energy driven inflation feeds into the wider economy.”
