8 January 2026
If you are covering Tesco’s Q3 and Christmas trading statement, please see the following comment from Lucy Rumbold, equity research analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Despite delivering a relatively strong Christmas trading update this morning, Tesco’s shares have opened negatively – likely due to management opting not to raise guidance and the retailer’s like for like sales coming in slightly cooler than had been hoped.
“Tesco saw like-for-like sales growth of 3.9%, slightly ahead of inflation and demonstrating volume growth above the wider market, but still lower than had been expected. Positively, however, over the key four-week lead up to the Christmas, the company achieved a decade-high market share of 29.4%, underscoring its ability to consistently defend its market leading position and maintain strong consumer appeal.
“Performance was equally robust across other regions. Ireland achieved higher market share and like for like food sales were up 5.2%, while Europe saw like-for-like sales growth of 14%. Fresh food remains a key growth driver across all markets, reflecting the observed trend of more consumers opting to cook from scratch.
“Consumer behaviour remains highly promotion driven, exceeding last year’s levels and reflecting ongoing caution among UK shoppers - consistent with record-high saving rates. Tesco’s strategy is resonating well, supported by the expansion of its Aldi Price Match range and Clubcard pricing. The retailer has also capitalized on the shift from dining out towards at-home occasions, evidenced by a 13% uplift in sales of its premium Finest range over the period.
“While it has not raised guidance, management now expects full-year profits to come in at the upper end of its suggested £2.9bn–£3.1bn range. Tesco remains well positioned to navigate evolving consumer trends, including heightened promotional activity and growing demand for premium at-home dining.”
