28 April 2026
If you are covering Taylor Wimpey’s Q1 trading statement, please see the following comment from Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot:
“Taylor Wimpey’s Q1 trading statement revealed robust sales data for 2026 year-to-date, with a sales rate of 0.74x per outlet per week. This is down by approximately 4% compared to the equivalent figure for 2025, but still relatively high and better than what most of its peers are currently achieving. This figure is also unchanged since the full year results were announced at the beginning of March, suggesting buyer behaviour hasn't changed materially since then – despite the increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop noted by management. The company's forward order book has shrunk similarly, falling by 5% to £2.2bn, but still represents nearly 7,700 homes effectively sold. Encouragingly, the 14% cancellation rate is slightly lower than last year’s.
“However, management acknowledged that there has been some underlying price pressure, with the overall pricing in the order book falling 1% year-on-year. Price falls have been more keenly felt in the South of England where buyer affordability metrics are most stretched. Taylor Wimpey is proactively managing its Southern exposure and phasing out of London apartment schemes, likely as a result of weak price growth compared to the rest of the UK. Management also made a soft increase to build cost inflation forecasts, which are now expected to be low to mid-single digit for 2026, having previously guided to low single digit in early March. This may prove to be a modest increase numerically, but with the prior guidance forming part of the basis for the company's circa £400m operating profit guidance, the question remains whether this latter figure is still achievable, especially as management expected house price growth of 2% in the year.
“There has been no change in operating profit guidance announced today, and if macroeconomic conditions improve, there may be no need for one. However, if these conditions persist, prior guidance will come under increased scrutiny.”
