9 January 2026
If you are covering the potential merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore, please see the following comment from Maurizio Carulli, global energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Last night, Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed in a joint press release that they have held preliminary discussions about a potential combination of some or all of their businesses, which could include an all-share merger. The current expectation is that any transaction would be structured as an acquisition of Glencore by Rio Tinto through a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement.
“Under UK Takeover Panel rules, Rio Tinto must announce either a firm intention to make an offer or confirm that it does not intend to proceed by 5th February 2026.
“This development follows reports of similar talks about a year ago and comes after the departure of former Rio Tinto CEO Jacob Stausholm, who was understood to have opposed such a deal. Stausholm stepped down at the end of last summer and was succeeded by Simon Trott, previously head of Rio Tinto’s iron ore division.
“With Rio Tinto’s market capitalisation at around £107 billion compared to Glencore’s £50 billion, any merger would in practice amount to an acquisition of Glencore by Rio Tinto. That said, the integration would be far from straightforward given the stark differences in corporate culture and the diversity of their asset bases. Glencore’s coal operations could be a sticking point, as Rio Tinto exited coal entirely several years ago, and many of Glencore’s assets are mature, largely stemming from its Xstrata acquisition more than a decade ago. On the other hand, Glencore’s marketing and trading arm is widely regarded as best-in-class and would bring significant commercial and logistical strength to a combined group.
“The announcement offered no details on structure or exchange ratio, leaving the door open to multiple scenarios. These could range from a full all-share merger to more complex arrangements, such as Glencore spinning off its coal business via an IPO on the Australian Stock Exchange to address ESG concerns, or even creating separate listed entities for bulk materials or base metals.
“Antitrust scrutiny is almost certain, as a combined Rio Tinto-Glencore would become the world’s largest copper producer, a material critical to global electrification and strategic industries. And the possibility of an interloper cannot be dismissed – BHP, for example, might see an opportunity to make a move on Glencore after two failed attempts to acquire Anglo American in recent years.”
