30 June 2026
If you are covering the latest property transaction data, please see the following comment from Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
UK residential property transactions came in at 98,450 on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, down 2% on April but 17% higher than a year ago. While the annual comparison appears encouraging, it is heavily skewed by the distortions caused by last year’s Stamp Duty changes, which depressed activity in spring 2025 as buyers rushed through purchases to beat the deadline earlier than normal. As such, the year on year increase overstates the underlying strength of the housing market.
A clearer picture emerges when this is viewed alongside yesterday's Bank of England’s money and credit data. This points to a marked slowdown in housing activity feeding into the pipeline. Net mortgage borrowing fell to £2.9 billion from £4.4 billion, while approvals for house purchases declined to 56,200. Taken together, this suggests demand is being pushed out rather than building, as households hold back from making long-term financial commitments given an uncertain economic backdrop.
The market is not short of underlying demand, but a significant proportion of buyers are choosing to delay decisions in the face of affordability pressures and uncertainty around the path of interest rates.
These figures are also inherently backward looking, reflecting deals agreed earlier in the year. More recent developments, including heightened geopolitical tensions and the subsequent volatility in swap rates and mortgage pricing, are not yet fully captured. While the emergence of a ceasefire may provide some reassurance and could prompt a modest uptick in buyer interest, the outlook remains fragile.
In reality, many prospective buyers are likely to continue sitting on their hands. The experience of repeated shifts in mortgage pricing has made households more cautious, and there remains a strong preference to wait for clearer signs that borrowing costs are on a sustained downward path and that the wider environment is more stable before committing.
Activity is no longer being artificially altered by policy changes, but nor is it benefiting from the conditions needed for a sustained recovery. Until mortgage rates show a clearer downward trajectory and confidence returns, transaction volumes are likely to remain constrained, with any improvement gradual rather than decisive.
