10 March 2026
If you are covering the morning markets in relation to the Middle East conflict, please see the following comment from Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
"Markets are attempting to stabilise after an extraordinary round trip in oil prices that saw prices collapse from an intraday high of nearly $120 a barrel back towards the low $90s, helped in part by President Trump signalling that the war with Iran could be “very complete, pretty much”. Equities in the US responded in turn with modest gains while Treasury yields reversed, ending the day fractionally lower.
"Despite that semblance of stability, the broader picture remains unsettled. Whilst equity markets have been relatively calm despite wild swings in energy prices, the global equities index (MSCI ACWI) remains just into positive territory year to date, investors had started to challenge this mindset in recent days, with a steep sell-off in Asia at the start of the week a signal of capitulation. However, Donald Trump’s latest comments, which followed a call with President Putin, indicated he is looking for an off-ramp and investors breathed a small sigh of relief.
"The issue will be not only whether Iran will quickly agree to peace, knowing that it risks being attacked a third time but also that its strategy to hold the worlds energy markets hostage has been highly successful. Reopening the Straits of Hormuz will be a difficult task without their agreement, regardless of Presidential bluster. Investors, who widely agree that this war will be a distant memory in six months time, have pushed the price of oil for delivery in six months time to around $80 – 25% higher than its one-year average rate to the end of February. In a world where international rules have become optional and just-in-case stockpiling is replacing just-in-time supply chains, this makes some sense, but it still creates a meaningful headwind for inflation and hopes of future rate cuts.
"For now, investors appear hopeful, but the path ahead is unlikely to be smooth."
