15 September 2026
“Today's earnings figures show wage growth running at 3.9%, which puts a State Pension increase of a similar magnitude firmly on the cards next April under the triple lock.
“If confirmed, this would see the full New State Pension rise to over £13,000. While we will need to wait for September's inflation figure before the uprating mechanism is formally confirmed, inflation is currently expected to remain below earnings growth, making an earnings-led increase the most likely outcome.
“For pensioners, another above-inflation increase will be welcome news and reflects the success of the triple lock in strengthening the value of the State Pension over time. The State Pension remains a crucial source of retirement income for millions of people and continues to provide the foundation upon which many build the rest of their retirement plans.
“But every increase also serves as a reminder that the government cannot keep avoiding the longer-term question. The triple lock was introduced when there were genuine concerns that the State Pension had fallen behind wider living standards and, by that measure, it has been successful. The challenge now is not whether pensioners should be protected, but how to do so in a way that is sustainable for future generations. At present this question continues to be kicked around like a political football with no government willing to take the undeniably unpopular step of reform.
“The current system was never designed to run indefinitely. An ageing population, rising longevity and the ratchet effect embedded within the triple lock mean the cost of the State Pension will continue to grow faster than policymakers anticipated when the policy was introduced. Recent years have highlighted the problem. A sharp spike in inflation was followed by stronger wage growth, resulting in successive large increases that become permanently embedded in spending even after the original economic shock has passed.
“Rather than debating whether the triple lock should stay or go, the focus should be on establishing a durable framework for State Pension adequacy. Government should decide what proportion of average earnings the State Pension is intended to provide and maintain that benchmark over time. Under a smoothed earnings link, pensioners would continue to receive protection when inflation temporarily outpaces wage growth, but once earnings recover the State Pension would gradually return to its target share of earnings rather than locking every short-term shock into future spending. That would provide a fairer and more sustainable solution while maintaining confidence in retirement incomes.
“People save and plan for retirement over decades, not parliamentary terms. Giving people greater certainty over the future direction of State Pension policy would help them make better long-term financial decisions while ensuring the system remains affordable for future generations.
