8 April 2026
If you are covering the financial market reaction to the announced US-Iran ceasefire, please find below a comment from Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
“Markets are breathing a sigh of relief this morning as news of a temporary ceasefire coming alongside a two-week reopening of the Straits of Hormuz has seen oil plunge nearly 15% to $93/barrel overnight. Europe, Japan and emerging markets were staring down the barrel of a sustained inflationary shock due to their heavy reliance on Gulf partners for energy imports. This was evidenced in the recent performance of the domestic facing index of mid-sized UK companies, falling around 8% since the outbreak of war. We are already seeing a swift bounce back, with that index already up more than 4% this morning, while the main UK index, home to the energy giants, is seeing more modest relative gains given its ability to be a port in a storm of late.
“Whilst the ceasefire remains temporary, investors will be taking encouragement from the latest words of Donald Trump that the 10-point plan received from Iran is considered to be ‘a workable basis on which to negotiate’. That this plan includes ongoing tolls on shipping, US military withdrawal from the Middle East and the lifting of all sanctions, amongst other demands, with the Iranian version also including a line on ongoing uranium enrichment, makes the level of capitulation by the US very clear.
“Far from regime change, we now seemingly have a hardened and emboldened IRGC effectively ruling Iran with oil prices likely to remain higher than pre-war levels and tolls potentially a more permanent feature. Whilst investors are already pricing the inflationary pulse to be a temporary one, the risk is that behaviours seen this year are part of a wider pattern with longer-term consequences for energy security and supply chains, and of course the global economy. The oil price we had become accustomed to pre-war is unlikely to return in the current environment.
“For now, markets will rejoice that far from a civilisation being ended, a dangerous and ill-planned war seems to be over, for now at least. Yet events of the last month lay stark the multi-polar world we now live in; one where shocks to the global system are becoming increasingly frequent, and where legislative oversight is becoming weakened. Undoubtedly, the US has been weakened by this excursion, and the ramifications will be long-lasting.”
