6 March 2026
“Halifax’s latest figures show that house prices in February increased 0.3% with annual growth now at 1.3%. The average UK home is valued at a new high of £301,151. While the market has enjoyed early momentum geopolotical events may throw this into question.
“The backdrop for buyers has become more complicated in just a few days. Hopes of a steadier rate environment have been disrupted by fresh instability following the war in Iran. While there will not be a sudden jump in mortgage rates lenders may pause planned reductions, with swap rates rising sharply as geopolitical tensions push up oil prices and revive inflation concerns. This shift makes it harder for households to judge when affordability will genuinely improve.
“For anyone planning to buy or remortgage, it is worth taking practical steps now. Most lenders will allow a mortgage offer to be secured up to six months ahead, which can give some protection against further volatility. Borrowers approaching the end of a fixed deal should start conversations early, as having options lined up can reduce the risk of being caught by sudden rate moves. Those looking to buy should also factor in the possibility that pricing may remain uneven for a while, so stress testing repayments at slightly higher rates is sensible. In a market driven as much by geopolitics as by domestic demand, being organised is one of the few areas where borrowers still have some control.
“Although buyer interest has improved on last year, sentiment remains fragile. Global uncertainty could slow the momentum that had been emerging, particularly if markets continue to expect firmer inflation. That would keep mortgage pricing stickier than borrowers hoped, limiting any meaningful uplift in demand. Much now depends on how quickly rate expectations stabilise. If swap rates calm and lenders regain confidence, competition could return, but the outlook is highly sensitive to global events."
