1 May 2026
If you are covering Nationwide's latest house price index, please see the following comment from Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
UK house prices surprisingly edged up by 0.4% in April, taking the average property value to £278,880, according to Nationwide’s latest index. However, that resilience will be tested by what happens next geopolitically, particularly if swap rates begin to climb again.
The Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 3.75% yesterday offers stability, but not certainty. Governor Andrew Bailey has warned he cannot give a ‘cast iron assurance’ against further rate rises, underlining how the Iran war and its impact on energy prices is keeping inflation risks in play. For now, today’s data suggests that uncertainty has yet to dent house prices in a meaningful way.
Part of that resilience reflects improving conditions in the mortgage market. Lenders have started trimming fixed-rate deals again as swap rates ease and competition for borrowers intensifies. That has created a slightly more supportive backdrop, although pricing remains highly sensitive to shifts in market expectations.
The result is a housing market that is moving, but cautiously. Demand remains, but buyers are more price-sensitive and quicker to react to changes in mortgage costs, keeping a lid on stronger price growth.
Looking ahead, mortgage rates will remain the dominant force. Fixed rates are driven by swap markets, which are reacting as much to global developments as domestic policy. Recent easing has helped, but it could reverse quickly if inflation risks re-emerge.
For buyers and those approaching a remortgage, conditions are improving at the margins but far from settled. Rates are no longer rising sharply, but nor is there a clear path lower. In that environment, preparation matters more than timing, with borrowers best served by reviewing options early and keeping flexibility as the market continues to adjust.
