9 January 2026
If you are covering the latest monthly property transaction statistics, please see the following comment from Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
“November’s transaction figures suggest a housing market that is treading water rather than moving decisively in either direction. On a seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions edged up to 100,350, a 1% increase on October and 8% higher than a year ago, marking the strongest reading since March. While that points to some underlying resilience, it falls short of signalling a meaningful recovery in activity.
"The non-seasonally adjusted data tells a more subdued story, with residential transactions down 12% on October and 3% lower than November last year. This reflects a market where many buyers and sellers remained hesitant, particularly as uncertainty lingered ahead of the budget and the festive period approached.
"With the budget now out of the way, there is a sense that some of that caution may begin to ease. While the introduction of a mansion tax will affect a narrow part of the market, many buyers may have been relieved that the overall package was less punitive than feared. That release of uncertainty matters for confidence, even if it does not materially change affordability overnight.
"As we move into the new year, the convergence of greater post-budget clarity, lower interest rates and a degree of pent-up demand could support a modest improvement in activity. However, stretched affordability and still-elevated borrowing costs mean any resurgence is likely to be gradual rather than dramatic.
"Overall, the data points to a market that has stabilised but is waiting for a clearer signal before moving higher. A slow return to more buoyant conditions looks far more likely than any sudden spike in transactions as we head into 2026.”
