3 March 2026
If you are covering the latest financial results from Greggs, please find below a comment from Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot:
“Given that Greggs released most of its financial figures in January, today’s full year results from the chain are to be expected and in line with consensus. As a reminder, Greggs grew life for like sales by 2.4% in 2025, which reflected a challenged consumer backdrop, and a particularly hot weather in the summer.
“Reassuringly, Greggs continues to outperform its peers, with its share of visits increasing (up 50 basis points to 8.6%), compared to the market which is down (-3%), and Greggs is now the top four brand in all day parts and delivery.
“What’s new news today is commentary on current trading, where like for like sales are up 1.6%, for the first nine weeks of the year. While this is a slowdown on the Q4 run-rate of 2.9%, this is due to lower price inflation (5% to 4%) with the rate of volume decline stable. And commentary suggests profit growth given cost control. There have been no changes to guidance for 2026, where profits are expected to be flat, while inflation is expected to moderate to 3% (5.5%).
“Greggs also reiterated capex would start to reduce significantly in 2026 as its distribution facilities come online and we see greater use of these assets, and therefore we should see some margin recovery, with the ability for cash returns potentially from 2027.
“Shares are trading at their lowest value in the past five years, with long-term growth opportunities remaining from delivery, evening and loyalty, and with potential for enhanced cash returns.”
